This year’s Golden Globes delivered a few unexpected thrills, shaking up the Oscar race.
Actress Demi Moore won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for her role in the body-horror satire The Substance, and Fernanda Torres claimed the Best Actress award in Drama for I’m Still Here, a Brazilian political film.
Both actresses had been considered long shots for an Oscar nomination but their surprise victories, paired with stirring acceptance speeches, now place them in serious contention.
While the Golden Globes are often seen as a glamorous spectacle—featuring stars like Nicole Kidman, Harrison Ford, and Zendaya—they are not the best predictor of Oscar success.
The 334 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who vote for the Globes, do not overlap with the 9,000-plus voters for the Oscars.
However, winning a Globe can provide momentum and increase the perception of an actress as a serious contender. These wins have done just that for Moore and Torres.
Moore’s performance in The Substance, where she plays a television personality replaced by a younger woman, is compelling, but it is her comeback narrative that is most resonant with voters.
In her acceptance speech, Moore reflected on her long career and the insecurity she once felt, revealing how a producer had once called her “a popcorn actress.” She shared how The Substance, a project she saw as an unexpected creative opportunity, helped her revive her career.
Such stories of resurgence often resonate with awards voters, as seen in Ke Huy Quan’s Oscar win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The film’s theme, which critiques the vanity and cost of Hollywood fame, also strikes a chord with voters.
Fernanda Torres’ win was an even bigger surprise, but her performance in I’m Still Here, where she plays the wife of a disappeared Brazilian politician during the country’s military dictatorship in the 1970s, is deserving.
Her acceptance speech was heartfelt, dedicating the win to her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who played her character’s mother in the film and was nominated for both a Globe and an Oscar 25 years ago.
Torres also addressed the state of the world in her speech, speaking on resilience and survival in tough times—a message likely to resonate with Hollywood, especially in the current climate.
While the Golden Globes’ impact on Oscar predictions is uncertain, these wins have certainly brought Moore and Torres into the conversation.
They defeated tough competition—Moore overcame other likely Oscar contenders like Mikey Madison, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Cynthia Erivo, while Torres triumphed over Hollywood heavyweights like Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, and Tilda Swinton.
These wins set the stage for a thrilling race to the Oscars.
However, other awards from the night, such as Sebastian Stan’s win for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy for A Different Man, are not expected to have the same effect.
His competition was weaker, and his win is seen more as career validation.
In contrast, the win for Best Actor in Drama went to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, further complicating the drama category for the Oscars.
The most important factor from this year’s Golden Globes may be its timing.
With Oscar voting ending on January 12, the Globes arrived just in time to influence the final days of the nomination process.
With Moore and Torres now firmly in the Oscar conversation, the race promises to be full of twists and surprises.
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